The National Statistics Bureau (NSB), with the support of United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), Bhutan brought out a National Level Population Projections in 2007. A Component method was adopted in determining the future population size. The report provides population data projected at national level till 2030 with the base line data of the Population and Housing Census of Bhutan (PHCB) 2005.
The current publication presents projections at Dzongkhag level disaggregated by age group, areas and sex till 2015. The exponential growth model together with ratio type methods are adopted for this sub-national projection. The age-sex distribution is estimated as the ratio of the population in each age group of national population. The adjustment of the data as per new administrative boundaries of the Dzongkhags was necessitated to ensure the comparability of population data over time.
Projected population disaggregated by age, sex, urban and rural areas is necessary towards fulfilling specific goals and objectives. Moreover, the data on future course of population change backed by knowledge about the potential impact and effects of such interventions is useful to reinforce the development activities.
The accuracy of any projection is conditional on the reliability of the base population estimates, the component data, and the degree to which the underlying assumptions correspond to future trends. Projections are not predictions; they are instead an effort to create plausible scenarios based on assumptions regarding the components of population growth, which are themselves subject to uncertainty. Accordingly, it cannot be claimed that the values observed in the coming years will always remain within the range implied by the projection exercises.
The NSB would like to acknowledge the support of UN System and UNICEF in particular for its technical support and in bringing out this report. We hope that the report provides the policy makers, planners, development partners, and other stakeholders the required information for micro-level planning and program implementation.
Director,National Statistics Bureau